Bank of England used inflation forecast based on pencil drawing, says Haldane

The Bank of England relied on an inflation forecast based on a pencil drawing, a former official has said. Andy Haldane, the Bank’s former chief economist who worked in Threadneedle Street from 1989 to 2021, said an early forecast used by the central bank was based on a sketch done by a former governor. Writing in the Financial Times, Mr Haldane said: “In the early years of inflation targeting in the UK, the then head of forecasting at the Bank of England entered my room clutching a piece of paper. “On it were two lines: the inflation forecast produced painstakingly by his team over the preceding weeks, and an alternative inflation projection hand-drawn in pencil by the then governor. Only the latter ‘forecast’ ever saw the light of day.” The Bank of England began targeting a set rate of inflation in 1992, under then-governor Robin Leigh-Pemberton. He was succeeded by Eddie George in 1993 who ran the Bank for a decade. Mr Haldane did not indicate which governor he was referring to. The revelation that hand drawn projections were used in the early days comes amid intense scrutiny of the Bank’s forecasting abilities, following a damning report published last week...

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