A serious escalation of tensions in the Middle East would push the price of oil above $100 (£80) a barrel and reverse the recent downward trend in global inflation, the World Bank has said. The Washington-based institution said the recent fall in commodity prices had been levelling off even before the recent missile strikes by Iran and Israel – making interest rate decisions for central banks tougher. But it added that its forecast that crude prices would average $84 a barrel this year would prove too optimistic in the event of the crisis worsening. Fears of a full-scale war in the Middle East have already led to a rise in oil prices and dearer fuel costs for motorists. A barrel of Brent crude is trading at $87, while the average price of a litre of unleaded petrol in the UK has edged above £1.50 for the first time since last November. The World Bank’s latest commodity markets report said: “A moderate conflict-related supply disruption could raise the average Brent price this year to $92 a barrel. A more severe disruption could see oil prices surpass $100 a barrel, raising global inflation in 2024 by nearly one percentage point.” Between mid-2022...