Jeremy Hunt knows it. Rachel Reeves knows it too. The Office for National Statistics will come bearing good news on Wednesday when it releases the latest inflation figures. The only real question is just how good the news will be. In the year to March, annual inflation as measured by the consumer prices index stood at 3.2%. The figure for April will be a lot lower and if Hunt gets lucky it might even fall as low as the government’s 2% target. The sharp decline is mainly due to movements in electricity and gas prices. Domestic energy bills rose in April 2023 but have fallen by 12% this year for most households. The energy price cap was set at £1,690 last month compared with £2,500 a year earlier. Base effects – in other words, what happened a year ago – coupled with cheaper heating and lighting this year means it is inevitable the inflation rate will tumble. Hunt is a seasoned enough politician to avoid claiming total victory when the figures come out. The chancellor is aware that voters have seen prices rise by 20% in less than three years and may be unwilling to accept that the cost of...